Unpacking COP28: A Brief Glance into the Main Takeaways
British Expertise International were delighted to kick off the year’s Climate Change programme with a discussion on the outcomes of COP28 with a brilliant panel representing our members Crown Agents, Phyla, Abt Associates and CDP.
Negotiations and Commitments
Some aspects of the negotiations and the agreements reached at COP28 were seen as frustrating by both experts and the media. Given that the COP process is universal, requiring consensus from over 190 countries, our panel suggested that the idea of a global agreement addressing all the complexities associated with the climate crisis is an unreasonable expectation. It would be more realistic to expect something closer to a generalized policy commitment as a basis for action by individual countries.
With this approach, countries undertake the necessary legal and policy work domestically. Once a ratified international treaty is converted into domestic law, it starts to impact the behaviour of businesses, creating obligations that reshape markets and challenge the status quo in pursuit of a just transition.
Global Stocktake
COP28 brought the first ever Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. The Stocktake is to be held every five years to check progress against Paris goals and inform the next round of national climate pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Our speakers felt that the Stocktake was one of the key outcomes of COP28, with a number of important outcomes including targets for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) framework, reflecting a consensus on adaptation targets and the need for finance, technology and capacity building support to achieve them. Importantly, the Stocktake also referenced the need for active engagement with business and financial institutions, as collaboration with non-state actors requires an improved assessment and management of financial risks, to facilitate increased ambition among non-state actors.
Participation
Our panel reflected on some of the criticism this COP attracted due to its unprecedented size – and therefore large carbon footprint – with some 85,000 participants; the apparent incongruity of climate talks being hosted by a country with a strong fossil fuel-based economy; and the presence of many fossil fuel companies and lobbyists.
On the other hand, one could regard COP28’s size and breadth of involvement as an achievement for the COP process overall, since oil and gas producing states and organisations have the biggest potential to contribute to the transition, moving from a mindset of just selling energy to focusing on security and stability for a resilient future. Their involvement is therefore essential for success. Our panel’s view was that, while participation by the fossil fuel companies might have been uncomfortable for other attendees, it could be regarded as a positive from a broader strategic perspective.
Other sectors also had a big presence at COP28, using the platform to secure funding for innovations and to build new partnerships. Civil society activists from developing nations were very present and visible throughout the conference.
Energy Transition
As many as 50 fossil fuel companies, accounting for over 40% of oil production worldwide, signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, pledging to end gas flaring by 2030, eliminate methane emissions and align with net zero by 2050. This was definitely a significant step in the right direction, especially with regard to methane, which is responsible for about 50% of the global warming that has taken place so far. The global methane pledge, adopted by more than 150 countries, is critical to cutting near term warming to 2030: almost all of the methane reductions between now and 2030 will be in the energy sector.
There is of course still plenty to do on energy transition and speakers expressed the view that more should be done on transition pathways, with industry adopting localised solutions, taking into account locally-driven needs to balance environmental priorities with economic and social factors, in association with government bodies and the financial sector. Perhaps the biggest challenge is to create platforms that allow for the transformation while ensuring win-wins for both investors and developing markets. In addition, building capacity to drive behaviour change is as important as investing in new technologies.
Intersections
The language of the negotiations has become more sophisticated and nuanced over the years, as the various players grow to understand climate science as the basis for all aspects of the COP process. In the adaptation space, it is encouraging to see that coordination between work on climate change, biodiversity and international development is becoming core to the discussions.
The panel also touched on carbon markets, with negotiations around Article 6 of particular importance to the private sector. Our panellists discussed the emergence of biodiversity credits and even positive impact credits. The connection with biodiversity was made clearly at COP28 and our panel cautioned against creating any new system through Article 6 that did not contribute to bringing together carbon and biodiversity. Many of the countries which have not been recipients of climate finance are endowed with natural capital and could be rewarded for climate change mitigation; opening up Article 6 to such innovations is therefore critical.
This COP also brought to the fore some of the other key intersections with climate change, notably, health, gender, water management, agriculture and food security. Climate Change affects every area of international development: at BEI we will continue our Intersections with Climate series on 6 February with a session on the Intersection of Climate Change, Gender-Based Violence and other Harmful Practices, and 13 February on the Intersection of Climate Change and Food Security. Our new Water Resilience working group has started preparatory work on a report. We look forward to panels on climate finance, forestry and nature-based solutions, and biodiversity credits later in 2024.
Summary
Our panel reflected that, for all its difficulties and frustrations, including some vague commitments in the final Global Stocktake text, this was largely a positive COP with healthy engagement from across the public and private sectors, NGOs, scientists and broader civil society. Our speakers were encouraged by the many new partnerships created at COP28 and the breadth of innovation showcased to secure funding, as well as the maturity of agreements on energy transition.
Whatever is agreed at COP is only really worth anything when it is implemented. To align even better, we have to do much more and make more resources available to reduce emissions. Our members will continue playing an important role in supporting governments and businesses to build and apply the tools and capacity to turn pledges that have been made into real transition for energy generation and to integrate mitigation in agriculture and food systems in the next round of the NDCs. These pledges must lead to quantifiable investments, feasible actions, and real action plans.
Alexandra Barnes
Programme Director, Climate and Infrastructure, British Expertise International
Speaker profiles
James Cameron is Chair of Crown Agents and a recognised authority in the global climate change movement. James is an advocate and catalyst for galvanising big impact change on environmental challenges globally, having been invested in the climate negotiations process since the late 80’s. James wrote the first law review article on state responsibility for climate change; helped build the coalition of small island states; and has been an active participant in the COP process since its start.
Rabih El Fadel, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Phyla Earth UK has a unique understanding of sustainability, with over 25 years of experience in low energy designs, low-carbon emission initiatives, including energy buildings passive design, efficient systems, renewable energy, building management systems calculation methodology. Phyla Earth works to restore ecosystems that have been degraded by mining, intensive agriculture and other degenerative activities to help communities and landowners enhance biodiversity, build healthy soils, mitigate and adapt to climate change.
Eric J. Reading, the Chief Climate Officer at Abt Associates leads Abt’s work in climate change mitigation and adaptation across divisions, as well as its corporate sustainability programme. In previous roles, he has led programmes in water, energy, natural resources, land use, agriculture, and health. Prior to joining Abt, Eric was the Executive Vice President for Chemonics International, where he oversaw all aspects of global development business with USAID and DFID (now FCDO) and led digital transformation.
Amir Sokolowski, Global Director of the Climate Change Team at CDP, leads a team which provides the up-to-date thought leadership on the subject, helping ensure that CDP incentivises ambition and is in line with the latest knowledge and developments on the subject. Amir has 15 years’ experience working on the ground with governments and as part of international negotiations, drafting legislation, negotiating with institutions around carbon markets and contributing to the Paris Rule Book.
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