Libya: Scoping Mission January 2012

Libya blog – 21-24 January 2012

Tripoli is very different since my last visit 15 months ago. Although there is a real sense of relief and hope in the air, there are anxieties over the huge challenges in State building facing the country over the next few years. The initial euphoria following the fall of Gaddafi has faded to be replaced by an awareness of how difficult and immense these tasks will be. I felt an air of fragility over what has been achieved – there are fears about a breakdown of law and order, a lack of sense of direction, and rumours about Gaddafi loyalists abound, but more than anything else I felt the country was desperate to have a chance to elect its own rulers. The Transitional Government (NTC) feels like just that – a temporary structure that exists mainly to create the framework which will result in historic elections in the summer. I suspect it will be a bumpy road until that point, but beyond that the possibilities, and opportunities for UK companies, are huge.

travelled with a delegation of British Expertise members, including the current Chairman, Steve Taylor from Crown Agents. The focus was mainly on construction and infrastructure, with an additional focus on capacity building, all of which will be desperately needed over the next few years.

We held meetings with most of the big public sector organisations in Tripoli which have been overseeing the development of Libyan infrastructure over the last few years. The overwhelming message is that this is a period of uncertainty and transition. It is clear that most, if not all, of the major construction sites are not being worked, the labour force has disappeared and not returned – many of their camps have been looted or are occupied - and all contracts signed under the former regime are being reassessed.

We were assured several times that past contracts would be honoured, unless there was evidence of any irregularity. This process of going through the books had only really just started, and clearly would not be a rapid process. It was refreshing to hear the word ‘transparency’ over and over, indicating a recognition that the corruption of the past would be tackled.

UK companies are extremely well positioned. For a start there is real anger over countries from the ‘East’ which were formerly very active in the market. China, Korea, and above all the Eastern European countries including Russia, appear to be on some fkind of unofficial blacklist for their support of the former regime. The UK’s role in the conflict and the perception of quality offered by British companies stand us in good stead. However there was also evidence that other countries are starting to get their act together – with Italian Prime Minister Monti signing a Friendship deal with the NTC while we were in Tripoli, and a big Turkish delegation arriving in our otherwise almost deserted hotel on the day we were leaving.

But the overwhelming feeling was that after an initial flush of interest in the Autumn from other countries, there was a feeling of reality sinking in that it could be a while before major projects renewed activity, and even longer before new ones started. Set against that was the professed desire of the Temporary Ministries to deliver at least some movement before the elections, with Quick Win projects such as the rehabilitation of damaged public buildings – especially hospitals – particularly of interest to Ministers. In the longer term the needs of the country are vast, in every sector from education, basic infrastructure (the smell of sewage on the Corniche has not improved) to the vast tourism potential.

This visit was – for most of our members – mainly about getting a foot in the door, re-establishing contacts, and making new ones. Libya is indeed a ‘High Value Opportunity’ as designated by UKTI, but it will take patience and will not be easy. It is good to hear that direct flights from the UK are resuming in May, as the current route via Turkey is hard work.

Although Tripoli was generally safe and calm, we travelled under the (unarmed) protection of a security company – unarmed as required under Libyan law. This did not come cheap, but having consultants – and drivers - who know the city and have access to information about where potential threats might be, was very valuable. Several from the group heard bursts of gunfire and a couple of explosions in the small hours of one morning – apparently a turf war over drugs and personally I slept through it! – but generally it was a relaxed atmosphere and Libyan organisations were pleased to see us.

Stepping into the lift on the first morning, I was taken aback to find a uniformed teenage militiaman in with me, toting a very large gun. The initial flicker of concern was soon allayed when I was greeted by a cheery Good Morning and a discussion about the weather (windy and showery) – and I soon realised that this kind of encounter is normal in the new Libya. Normalisation will take some time and there is uncertainty over the immediate future, but I have no doubt that Libya will be a key market for our members relatively soon, and expect British Expertise to be visiting on a regular basis.

Dominic James – 24 January 2012